Canada: CWB is cautiously optimistic about the price outlook for barley

The Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) announced on January 12 is cautiously optimistic about the price outlook for wheat and barley, but worried about durum.

CWB market analyst Neil Townsend says wheat market are helped by dryness in "Ukraine and parts of Russia. We're expecting below average wheat production in that region of the world. As well, there are concerns over dryness in some southern areas of the American winter wheat belt."

On the demand side, Townsend points to reports that China may increase wheat imports in the coming year. He's also hoping for more demand from other countries, including India.

Over the past two growing seasons, Canadian wheat quality has been below average due to poor harvest weather. A return to a more normal grade distribution would help with marketing and overall returns.

In barley, Australia has produced a large crop that's currently having an impact on both feed barley and malting barley prices on the world market. However, Townsend is hoping Aussie production will clear the market before the next Canadian harvest.

The poorest outlook is for durum. North American supplies are large and the durum crop potential in North African nations appears strong.

The value of the Canadian dollar is an important consideration for all export markets. It has cut returns dramatically over the past two years.

"With the beginning of the next crop year over six months away, the crystal ball can be quite murky," admits Townsend. "However, producers want as much information as possible as they make cropping plans.

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